The global gold market experienced a rollercoaster week as prices swung dramatically, reflecting a blend of economic factors and geopolitical tensions. Initially, gold prices fell, reaching a low of 2,694.51 USD per ounce at the onset of the week, before rallying to a peak of 2,720.93 USD midweek. However, this upward momentum was short-lived, as prices rapidly receded, plummeting more than 100 USD to 2,615 USD, causing a significant retreat for investors who had anticipated further gains.By Tuesday, the gold market touched a notable low of 2,605.08 USD, only to rebound slightly during the week. Trading remained turbulent, but by Friday, bullish sentiment reemerged, pushing prices to close at 2,649.33 USD. This week saw a fluctuation of approximately 115.85 USD, and the closing price reflected a fall of 61.8 USD compared to the previous week, a decline of 2.28%. Against the opening price, gold was down 45.18 USD, or 1.68%.The driving forces behind these price shifts included geopolitical developments. Early in the week, news regarding Israel's progress toward a ceasefire with Hezbollah alleviated some market uncertainties. Coupled with diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, this led to significant profit-taking by some bullish investors ahead of critical economic data and the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.Despite these fluctuations, buying pressure remained robust, especially after the Federal Reserve’s statements indicated a tendency toward a gradual approach to interest rate adjustments, reviving hopes of future cuts, albeit with caution. By the end of the week, risk-averse sentiment began to reassert itself, although the bearish signals that had emerged earlier did not escalate further. Investors hoped for a stabilization and a gradual rebound.As for the outlook for Monday, December 2, initial trading indicated continued pressure and a struggle with the 60-day moving average, as the dollar index strengthened, similarly weighing on gold prices. The dollar index, while experiencing a short-term rebound, met resistance at its moving averages, further contributing to gold's downward pressure.In the context of U.S. Treasury yields, the 10-year yield exhibited a downward trend, breaking below its 200-day moving average support. The increasing bearish momentum foreshadowed potential further declines in yields, which typically supports higher gold prices. On the weekly chart, the downward trend from the resistance line hinted at ongoing challenges, reinforcing the expectation of a gradual descent toward significant support levels.Considering these dynamics, while gold prices entered a phase of oscillation and adjustment, the inherent risks of a renewed surge remained palpable. Overall strategies appeared to lean toward buying during dips, capitalizing on lower price points.Investors were advised to keep a keen eye on key economic indicators released throughout the week, including the final reading of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI for November, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the month-on-month change in construction spending for October. Expectations leaned toward bearish implications for gold prices, as preliminary data suggested continued market volatility.Moreover, global bond market yields have been in decline, operating within a range that has persisted for more than two years, implying that bullish sentiment was subdued. In this context, geopolitical uncertainties continued to loom, sustaining the gold price rally into December as a safe-haven asset.In the short term, gold prices may navigate a choppy path, influenced by the fluctuations in the dollar and the general market sentiment. Nevertheless, the mid to long-term trajectory warrants close monitoring of global policy shifts and real interest rate adjustments. Ongoing economic and political challenges, along with heightened geopolitical tensions, may fortify gold's position as an appealing investment option in the face of uncertainty.From a technical perspective, the monthly chart for November showed a significant decline, yet the emergence of a long lower shadow indicated resilience just above the five-month moving average, suggesting that the pressure from reaching peak levels has dissipated. This sets the stage for a potential continuation of upward momentum, as long as gold prices remain above this crucial moving average level.
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